Walz(ing) Kamala

Kamala Harris has chosen Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her Vice Presidential dance partner. Does that say more about Walz, or Kamala?

WASHINGTON — Until yesterday, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz was mostly known (at least outside of Minnesota) for calling former President Trump, and his running mate, JD Vance, “weird.” And while Kamala Harris’ choice of Walz, a little-known Governor from a Midwestern state, might seem “weird” to some, he’s likely the safest choice as she looks to define herself without the distractions of a controversial running-mate.

“It seems very likely,” writes Phillip Bump in the Washington Post, “that the most common reaction to this pick will be a terse one: Who?”

“This was a choice designed to maintain the social fabric of the Democratic Party,” says pollster and election guru Nate Silver, “and avoid news cycles about a disappointed left and Democrats’ internal squabbling over the War in Gaza.” According to Silver, “It’s a nice pick: Walz, a two-term governor and six-term U.S. Representative, is from the family of Tim Kaine-style VP choices: inoffensive, unlikely to cause any harm, ‘safe’.”

The choice of Walz was likely more about who he isn’t than who he is. While he’s reliably progressive, pro-union, pro-abortion rights: “an avuncular Midwesterner and former high-school teacher,” writes John McCormick and Tarini Parti in the Wall Street Journal, ”who in recent years has signed into law policies popular with the Democratic base,” he’s uncontroversial almost to the point of invisibility.

Coming into Tuesday, many thought that Harris might choose Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro—a popular Governor in a battleground state. If Walz is, well, more Waltz, Shapiro is more Twist. He’s younger—Walz is 60, Shapiro is 51. Walz was a school teacher who went to a small, obscure, college; Shapiro a Georgetown-educated lawyer. Walz is low-key, Shapiro has been a controversial (at least in progressive circles) and ardent supporter of Israel, as well as a critic of pro-Palestinian campus protests.

“The basic reasons for picking Shapiro are that he increases the likelihood you win Pennsylvania, he has a demonstrated track record of popularity in the most important swing state, he’s obviously an extremely talented politician and perhaps a future standard-bearer for the party himself,” writes Silver. I have to quibble a bit with Silver here. Harris might see that last plus for Shapiro as a negative for her. Would she, desperate to set herself apart atop the party, want to put a potential rival, and perhaps a better campaigner, on her ticket?

“And also, the reasons for not picking Shapiro aren’t great,” adds Silver. “Democrats in the political bubble overstate the salience of the Gaza issue and understate the benefits of moderation, and that’s before getting into the issue of Shapiro’s Jewishness.”

Ah, the issue of Jewishness. Walz is definitely not Jewish. It wasn't so long ago, last October in fact, that being Jewish might have made you an attractive Democratic Vice Presidential hopeful. But after October 7, if you're a Jew who hasn't abandoned Israel, you're an anathema to the party's left wing. I'm sure Harris would prefer to avoid a pro-Palestinian encampment outside her campaign headquarters chanting “Divest Shapiro.” So goodbye Jewish Rye and hello good ‘ole White bread.

So far most of the polls show Harris and Trump running neck and neck—and even given Harris’ dismal approval ratings as Vice President not so long ago, a honeymoon period is expected. But these are mostly national polls, so keep in mind that it’s the Electoral College that ultimately determines who the President is, not who gets the most popular votes (as Democrats are painfully aware). In order to win—you MUST have an Electoral College strategy and you must amass the most Electoral College, not popular, votes. Like it, or not (that’s an argument for another day), those are the rules for the 2024 Presidential Election.

Silver, the founder of fivethirtyeight.com, the politics, economics and sports analysis website that was eventually swallowed-up by the New York Times (and now ABC News), believes that Pennsylvania is the most crucial of all the battleground states, followed—not so closely—by Wisconsin and Michigan. (Five Thirty Eight, by-the-way, happens to be the total number of Electoral College votes) Winning Pennsylvania is critical—and that’s why he thinks that Shapiro, not Walz, was the better Vice Presidential choice.

“Do I think Harris came to this choice for the right reasons — or at least the reasons that I think are the right reasons? Mostly not,” Silver says. “Although I think it was a real mistake not to consider Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who would seem to be a dominant strategy over Walz other than that it would mean having two women on the ticket … I thought the decision not to consider Whitmer or other candidates who weren't white men was poor.”

There was another white guy rumored to be in the mix—Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, a former astronaut and husband of Gabby Giffords. You might remember that Giffords, a member of the US House at the time, barely survived an assassination attempt back in 2011. Kelly had been considered a moderate counterweight to Harris—especially since Kelly has, according to the Washington Post, “struck a tough tone on the border that could help win over moderates.” But having Kelly on the ticket would likely have brought even greater scrutiny to Harris’ border woes, and focused attention both away from Harris, and on an issue perceived as a weakness for the Vice President.

So, what about Walz? “Walz was viewed by some Minnesotans as a moderate Democrat when first elected governor,” McCormick and Tarini Parti wrote in their Wall Street Journal article, “but he has governed more to the left than some initially expected.” Walz has, for example, supported driver’s licenses for illegal immigrants and voting rights for the formerly incarcerated. “To win in November,” they say, “Harris likely needs to do the reverse of what Walz did. She already is distancing herself from some of the more progressive parts of her record.”

But Walz has some positives. He’s an army veteran who, in addition to being Governor, served six terms in Congress representing a right-leaning district. He’s a former teacher—and Shapiro has supported school vouchers, earning the ire of teacher’s unions. He won’t anger the progressives, or the moderates. He’s white. But perhaps most importantly to Harris—he’s also invisible; there’s almost no chance she’ll be upstaged by him. And while that might not make him the strongest VP choice, it might make him her perfect Walz(ing) partner.