13 is NOT Biden's lucky number
Since Gallup began measuring Presidential popularity, President Biden has the lowest approval rating -- ever.
According to the survey firm Gallup, President Joe Biden averaged just 38.7% job approval during his recently completed 13th quarter in office, which began on Jan. 20 and ended April 19. “None of the other nine presidents elected to their first term since Dwight Eisenhower,” reports Gallup, “had a lower 13th-quarter average than Biden.”
“From a broader historical perspective Biden’s most recent quarterly average ranks 277 out of 314 presidential quarters in Gallup records dating to 1945. That puts it in the bottom 12% of all presidential quarters.”
This is bad news for the Biden campaign.
Sinking to a new FOCNN low.
“The latest quarterly average for Biden is technically the lowest of his presidency to date, though not meaningfully different from the previous quarter’s 39.0%,” Gallup noted, “After Biden averaged better than 50% approval during his first two quarters in office, his subsequent readings have been near 40%.”
The graphic above displays the averages of the numerous polls taken during each three-month calendar quarter of the Biden Presidency. Since the withdrawal from Afghanistan in the summer of 2021, Biden’s approval numbers have plummeted and never recovered. The aggregated polls tell the same story as Gallup — that the President remains historically unpopular with the American public.
In many calendar quarters there were as many as 400 separate polls conducted by national polling companies, media outlets, colleges, or some combination of the three. Fivethirtyeight.com graded the pollsters based on past accuracy — and we have included only those pollsters that received a grade of B or higher.
Is hindsight 20-20, or just rose-colored glasses?
Donald Trump continues to lead President Joe Biden in a head-to-head matchup according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. Perhaps most disconcerting for Biden is that the same poll found that “looking back, Trump’s term as president was a success, while a broad majority says Biden’s has so far been a failure.”
Biden’s Achilles Heel is likely to be independent voters. “Republicans now are more unified around the idea that Trump’s presidency was a success than Democrats are that Biden’s has been one,” writes Jennifer Agiesta for CNN. “Overall, 92% of Republicans call Trump’s time in office a success, while just 73% of Democrats say Biden’s has been a success so far. Among independents, 51% say Trump’s presidency was successful, while only 37% see Biden’s as a success.”
Biden’s popularity — or unpopularity — with independent voters is particularly troubling for Biden. According to the latest surveys and voter enrollment data, voters that identify as “independent” are becoming an increasing percentage of the electorate.
A recent Gallup poll found that more than 40% of voters don’t identify as either “Republican” or “Democrat,” and that those identifying with a major party are now at, or near, the lowest levels since Gallup began measuring. It’s independent voters that will determine the next President. (see our previous post on a possible third-party challenge.)
The economy, the border, concerns about Biden’s age — all haunt his Presidency and his campaign. “With about six months remaining before Election Day,” according to Gallup, “Biden stands in a weaker position than any prior incumbent.”
After Barrack Obama was elected President, comedian Chris Rock joked, perhaps prophetically, that President G.W. Bush had “f**ked up so bad,” he made it “possible for a white man to be President.” Has Biden done the same for Trump?